An open letter to SA Aiyar

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Mr. Aiyar,

I recently happened to read a post on your blog, Swaminomics. 

Source

In your post, you call out the developed nations for having caused the climate crisis. You mention how the Indian annual per capita carbon emission (1.7 metric tonnes) is much lower than that of Sweden (4.5 metric tonnes). You also point out how more than 90% of the historical emissions have come from western countries and Japan. You quote Kirit Parikh that India will never emit more carbon per capita than the West. You are absolutely correct about all of these data. The rest of the post discusses coal production in India (and I have no comments on that).

With all due respect, Sir, you are apologising to the wrong person.

There are several metrics that any climate conversation can focus on. There may be 5 different ways to assess who puts the most CO2 in the air, but I ask you this - do we have a problem with more CO2 in our air or do we have a problem with the effects it has? I would like to bring your attention to the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) - an estimate of the economic cost of the damages due to climate change.
India has the highest projected Social Cost of Carbon in the world - US$86 per tCO2. [1]
Simply put, India is expected to be the top victim of climate change. For every additional ton of CO2 being emitted (from anywhere in the world), India stands to lose US$ 86, on average. A crude multiplication of that figure with our own obviously outdated carbon emissions of 2014 (3202 million metric tonnes, estimate obtained from here) gives a rough figure of US$ 275 billion or 0.275 trillion. For comparison, our GDP right now is around US$ 2.6 trillion.

This would come as no surprise to anyone who has given any reasonable thought to the crisis. Considering the ~7500 long coastline which will be affected by growing sea levels, the huge populations dependent on Himalayan glacier-fed rivers, the position of the country in the tropical belt where temperatures are already high and our vulnerability to floods and drought, it is easy to see how India could lose a lot. The most alarming factors, however, are our abysmal lack of infrastructure, disaster preparedness and awareness.

The climate conversation in India frequently revolves around the blame-game. Either that, or an unfortunate exaggeration of our role as "climate change leaders" or "renewable energy leaders". I suggest that we focus less on leading the world and more on saving our own people. The next three "victims" on the climate change ranking list are China, Saudi Arabia and the US. You would be better acquainted than me with the economic positions of these countries.

So you needn't apologise to Greta. She comes from a region with a negative carbon cost. Countries like Canada, Russia and regions in north Europe actually stand to gain from climate change. Instead, if you must apologise, then apologise to the millions of Indians who will undoubtedly suffer from climate related tragedies.

I do not suggest you apologise because you "terrible oldies..created the oil and coal industries". When India was nationalising coal in the 1970s, only a handful of scientists around the world were beginning to understand the implications of carbon emissions. Today, in 2019, the IPCC has released  5 complete reports about the crisis, with comprehensible summaries for policy makers. There are working groups that are compiling and presenting information not simply on the physical science behind the climate crisis, but also its impacts, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation. There is no excuse for not trying to understand the crisis. There is no excuse for not discussing the crisis in a solution-driven way.
If you have chosen to be a voice, there is no excuse for not being a constructive voice in the climate conversation.
It does not take more than a cursory glance at your blog to realise that you are neither one to mince words nor a subservient apologist. I request you to utilise your reach and influence more responsibly. I request you to focus on the right aspects of this situation. Nations worldwide are talking about carbon taxes, social discount rates, the social cost of carbon etc. We are not even discussing the subsidies the government has to provide to keep the fossil fuel industry afloat. We are not even discussing the opportunity cost of not taking a lead in alternative energy. We are not even discussing regional climate injustice within India, but we talk of impeaching the West. (These are only some aspects I am aware of). We need experienced people like you to generate awareness about the economic aspects of the solutions.

India needs voices of reason to bring it out of its stupor -- and really loud ones too. I'm asking you to be one such voice.

- Shivangi Tiwari

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Technical comments

1Source: Ricke et al. (2018) Nature Climate Change - The study takes into account climate model projections, economic damage estimations and socio-economic projections and provides global and country level estimates of social cost of carbon. Figure 4 is particularly alarming (to me).

For anyone who does not have access to the article by Ricke et al., here is an article by Vox that also discusses the Social Cost of Carbon.

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