The El Nino is not THE problem
India has been in the grip of extreme heat for several months now. No doubt, you may have heard that this has something to do with the El Niño. In this blog post, I clarify some popular misconceptions about this phenomenon, its impacts and what constructive insights can be taken from this harsh ordeal.
For this blog post, I will rely on the example of this Instagram video which, at the time of writing, had 820+ thousand likes. Clearly, it would have influenced a lot of people's opinion on the ongoing extreme heat. As a climate scientist, I find certain aspects of the video misleading in ways that are important to rectify.
The video
In short, the video discusses the role of the developing 'Super El Niño' in making Indian cities unlivable right now. It also discusses the concept of the wet bulb temperature, and how important it is to distinguish it from the dry bulb temperature / air temperature.
Before I delve into what's wrong with the video, let me say two things very clearly:
- Yes, there is certainly an El Niño developing this year. Yes, it is contributing to making Indian cities unlivable. Yes, it is important that all Indians understand at least the basics about this phenomenon, because it has a subtanstial influence on our lives.
- Yes, it is important to understand the concept of the wet bulb temperature. Yes, it is very important to recognize that wet bulb temperatures of 45 degrees are not trivial, can be fatal, and are certainly not just another normal thing about living in a tropical / warm country.
Now, for what's wrong with the message. Here, I will be focusing solely on the El Niño aspect, and not discussing the wet bulb temperature aspect. I hope other aspiring science communicators can avoid these mistakes in the future.
El Niños are normal on Earth
The video starts with an alarmist message -- "When you realise the world's deadliest phenomenon is now coming towards India". The occurrence of an El Niño event, by itself, is a perfectly normal part of the Earth's natural climate system. It has worldwide impacts. It is not "now coming towards India". It has impacted our society and various socieities worldwide for several millennia, and will continue to do so for several coming millennia. Any one who thinks that this is a new phenomenon in the context of Indian climate is not qualified to engage in climate science communication.
Even if this turns out to be a 'Super El Niño', it would not be fundamentally different from any other El Niño events. Every El Niño event, whether weak, strong or super, has some impact on Indian climate. Thus, even a super El Niño would not be a phenomenon which is "now coming towards India".
An El Niño event (weak / strong / super), like any other natural climate phenomenon, is "deadly" when societies are not prepared to face it. 2 decades ago, disasters like cyclones or tsunamis were deadly, or at least much deadlier, than they are today. Over the past decades, our society has developed the ability to predict them and prepare for them. An El Niño is no different. El Niño events are already fairly predictable (at least several months in advance). There is no excuse to not be prepared for them anymore (as compared to 30 years ago, for example).
"Is tabaahi ka asli reason hai the Super El Niño which has returned after 150 years"
[In English: "The real reason for this disaster is the Super El Niño which has returned after 150 years"]
There are several incorrect and misleading aspects to this statement. I will try to clarify them one by one. Please keep patience.
We have already discussed that the El Niño cycle is a natural and predictable cycle. How predictable? Please note that the current supposed 'Super El Niño' has not actually developed yet into a 'Super' (extraordinarily strong) El Niño event. We are currently still in the prediction phase, the event has not actually peaked / matured / fully developed yet.
Here is what the NOAA El Niño Watch says (last updated: 14 May):
- "The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, favors El Niño to form by next month and persist through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
- While confidence in the occurrence of El Niño has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Niño, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance.
- The strongest El Niño events in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026."
At the time of writing, this was the latest available update. This is likely to be updated in the coming days. Everyone can access it themeselves without restrictions. It is a good source of El Niño related information.
That is the first thing to understand and appreciate here -- that we (humans) have a fairly good ability to understand and predict El Niño events There is nothing about this event that returned after so very many years that it completely took everyone by surprise.
On the contrary, climate scientists have wondered -- then noticed / observed -- then hypothesized -- then studied -- and then concluded -- over the past few decades, that climate change is making El Niño events more extreme. This page explains the science behind it. But a better way to understand this clearly is : Normally and naturally, La Niña events tend to bring some cooling to Earth and El Niño events tend to bring some warming to Earth. Right now, we have already crossed the point where even La Niña events cannot give us relief from the ongoing global warming. Thus, the natural warming-neutral-cooling cycle has now been overcome / overwhelmed by anthropogenic climate change. Getting out of the El Niño phase of this natural cycle will not bring relief or solve matters. India will continue to get hotter and more 'unlivable' for the coming several years / 1-2 decades at the least.
Summary
At the time of writing, and to the best of my understanding, this is the best way to understand the role of the current El Niño in making Indian cities unlivable:
- it is not the main reason
- it does play a role
- anthropogenic climate change is the main reason
- anthropogenic climate change amplifies the role of El Niño events in making India hotter
This brings us to the next important issue. If we incorrectly frame this as an El Niño problem, we have no power to do anything about it. El Niño events are part of a natural climate cycle, we can do nothing to change the cycle or its impact on India. The good news is, we don't need to do anything about this anyway. Instead, we need to frame this correctly -- as an anthropogenic climate change problem. By itself, India, or any one country on Earth, does not have the ability to entirely solve this problem either. But we do have some power to mitigate it. For the rest, there is no choice but to rely on adaptation.
There are several other technically incorrect statements in the video. They may or may not interest everyone, and I will leave them for another time (if at all).
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