Simply put: Hausfather et al. (2019)
This post is based on the paper " Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections " by Hausfather et al. (2019) published in Geophysical Research Letters. It explores an important question: How well did early climate models capture climate change? Image source Note that this study focused on a previous generation of climate models. Today, these models are operationally obsolete, i.e. they are no longer used for climate projections as they have been superseded by improved and more advanced models. But results from these modelling studies provide outputs for long timeframes. For examples, the oldest studies considered (Manabe, 1970; Mitchell, 1970 and Benson, 1970) provide data for 30 years from 1970 to 2000. In contrast, at the time this paper was being written, the newest study included (from the IPCC Assessment Report 4) provided only 10 years of data from 2007 to 2017. So even if this study does not tell us, How well do current climate models capture climat